Plain-language definitions for labels on the boards and cards. These describe what you are looking at—not the full modeling recipe behind the numbers.
Vix
We run multiple tests on each pitcher—not just one guess. Vix tells you whether those tests are on the same page. On the board this may appear as Volatility; it is the same read.
When the tests agree, Vix is low (you will often see a lower level on the board). When they don’t agree, Vix is higher—our own numbers are spread out, so take the projection with a little extra caution.
It is not about the stock market or “volatility” in the Wall Street sense. It is simply: do our tests line up on this guy?
PitchIQ Ks
The site’s current strikeout estimate for the listed starter—the number every comparison on the row is built around. It is the published output of the modeling stack, not a single raw stat line from a box score.
At its core, we are just providing a number—calculated from historical outcomes and similar matchup scenarios (pitcher profile, opponent, park, umpire when assigned, and the rest of the stack). We are not telling you what will happen; we are surfacing one estimate built from what has happened before in like spots. It is not a guarantee about tonight. Predicting the future is hard.
How you could use this number:
- Over / Under — compare PitchIQ Ks to the posted line (for example, 5.5). If the projection sits above the line, the model leans Over; below the line, Under. Bet Side and Edge / Confidence spell out that lean on each book.
- K+ — some books list milestone strikeout props (6+, 7+, and so on) instead of a half-point total. Treat the plus sign as the floor: 6+ means six strikeouts or more. If PitchIQ Ks is well above that whole number, the milestone is more in play; if it sits below, the model is less enthusiastic about clearing it.
The projection is one input—pair it with line shopping, Vix, and umpire status before you decide.
Over, Under, and K+ are framing concepts—not instructions. pitchIQ organizes the slate; what you do with it is your call, and your responsibility.
For how the modeling stack produces this number, see How are you getting your PitchIQ Ks? in Getting Started.
Edge / Confidence
The boards list two columns—Edge (a signed number vs the book line) and Confidence (High, Medium, or Low)—but on pitchIQ they are the same idea in two formats.
Edge is the straight math: how many strikeouts sit between PitchIQ Ks and the posted DraftKings or FanDuel line. The sign tells you which side of the line the model is on; the size is the distance.
Confidence is that distance translated into a quick tier so you can sort the slate without staring at decimals all morning. We are all about the numbers, not feelings—there is no separate “gut” score hiding behind the label.
High confidence means the numeric gap is worth your attention on that book; low confidence means the model and market are hugging each other. They should point the same direction. When the margin is thin, pair the read with Vix or check whether the ump is still pending—not a second opinion, just more context.
Bet Side
The model’s lean on that book’s strikeout line:
- Over or Under — our numbers favor that side of the line.
- Pass (shown as Avoid on the board) — as far as our numbers go, this one is basically a coin flip. We do not see enough separation from the line to call it a clear play. That is not an insult to the pitcher; it just means the math is not giving you a strong edge on that book.
Line & Odds
Line is the sportsbook strikeout total (for example, 5.5 Ks). Odds are the price on the over or under at that book. pitchIQ lines these up next to the projection so you can compare model vs market in one glance.
pitchIQ does not publish its full weighting, features, or pass-by-pass logic. The terms above are meant to help you read the product—not reverse-engineer it.